Wednesday, May 21, 2008

I think this news came out yesterday

But as the long and often deflating nomination fight reaches its end a bloodied but relatively unbowed Barack Obama has regained momentum against McCain in the general numbers.

Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the U.S. presidential rivals turn their focus to a general election race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama, who was tied with McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup last month, moved to a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over the Arizona senator in May as he took command of his grueling Democratic presidential duel with rival Hillary Clinton...

...The poll also found Obama expanded his lead over Clinton in the Democratic race to 26 percentage points, doubling his advantage from mid-April as Democrats begin to coalesce around Obama and prepare for the general election battle with McCain.

"Obama has been very resilient, bouncing back from rough periods and doing very well with independent voters," pollster John Zogby said. "The race with McCain is going to be very competitive."

The poll was taken Thursday through Sunday during a period when Obama came under attack from President George W. Bush and McCain for his promise to talk to hostile foreign leaders without preconditions.

Obama's gains followed a month in which he was plagued with a series of campaign controversies and suffered two big losses to Clinton in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.


I do think that despite low points that are inevitable in campaigns (and there will be a few more groaners to come I'm sure) the battle between Obama and Clinton has been good for the likely nominee. It has, indeed, toughened him up and given his campaign a good idea where to hit and where to repair during the general campaign.

Plus, this has quite possibly been the highlight of the McCain campaign. He only has started to get coverage of any critical variety and despite the laughable common wisdom of national security being a Republican strength (which is sooooooooooo 2004) he has come out the obvious loser for obvious reasons:

But Zogby said the attacks on Obama by Bush and McCain, who have been critical of his willingness to talk to leaders of countries like Iran, did not appear to hurt Obama. If anything, he said, it reminded voters of McCain's ties to Bush, whose approval rating is still mired at record lows.

"The president is so unpopular. To inject himself into a presidential campaign does not help John McCain, particularly when McCain is tied to Bush," Zogby said.


And therein lies the rub. McCain is not comfortable with domestic issues, where he loses -- so he wants to concentrate on international matters, especially jingoism and wars where he feels most comfortable.

...and where he is tied most clearly with Bush, who's policies in these areas are grossly, grossly unpopular. The policy McCain has is the one clear idea that Bush has tied his Presidency to. McCain cannot talk about the area he is comfortable in without sounding just like the monstrously unpopular President, widely recognized because of these same policies as one the poorest President since the antebellum period.

There is some good news for McCain:

McCain led among whites, NASCAR fans, and elderly voters.


Okay first of all, "whites" & "NASCAR" fans is a bit redundant.

Second, McCain is not way ahead in the white polling and the elderly polling will change when McCain's social security policy is revealed as Bush's horribly unpopular social security policy, which began the second Bush term out with an anvil of unpopularity around its already sinking feet.

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